Have you ever had the feeling you should sell your investments and hold cash in your investment accounts? Have you ever actually done it? Ever wished you had? Sometimes moving to cash is smart; sometimes it isn’t.
Most people don’t move to cash, or money-market funds, even though they really want to do so. Too often their advisor talks them out of it. I’ll bet that if you’ve ever brought up the idea with your advisor, you’ve heard a bunch of reasons why it would be a dumb move.
According to almost every advisor I know, they will tell you it’s a mistake.
The most common reason they use to convince you is, ‘When the market rebounds, you’ll miss the recovery if you’re just sitting in cash’. This is good advice. Since 1929, there have been 12 major negative markets on the New York Stock Exchange. In every case the market not only came back, but it actually went on to set new highs. Each time, if you had pulled out at the bottom, you would have had to buy back in at a higher level. This explains the common advice of staying put through difficult markets.
No one, not even your advisor, knows when, or even if, the market will come back, but history provides compelling evidence that it will eventually.
What you won’t often hear from the financial industry is that it does make sense for some people to move to cash, or at least to increase their cash weighting during market declines. It all depends on your time horizon. If history is a predictor of the future, the market will recover. When it will recover is the issue.
Starting in January of 1973, the market trended downward for most of the next 2 years. In all, it declined more than 40% from top to bottom. Sure, the market recovered, but it took almost 10 years. We had to wait until December of 1983 to see the market get back to where it was in 1973.
If you were invested in the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 1989, you are still waiting for that market to recover. The Japanese market hit a high in December of that year at 38,916. It closed today, April 23, 2009, at 8,847. More than 19 years later the market still has not recovered. In fact, it is still down by more than 75%.
The real reason that your advisor won’t recommend moving to cash is he has a huge incentive to keep his clients invested. Regardless of the fee structure of your account or how you pay him, your advisor’s compensation drops while you’re sitting in cash. If you move from equity mutual funds to money market funds, his compensation drops, in most cases to zero. If you sell your stocks for cash in a fee-based account, the fees he can charge you drop, and in turn, his compensation drops.
If you have a transaction-based account (where fees are charged when you buy or sell), you might think your advisor would be happy to place a bunch of sell orders as you move to cash. You’d be right. Advisors who charge clients per transaction have a greater number of clients move to cash during market turmoil. Go figure. However, once you’re in cash, especially in a downward market, it becomes more difficult for him to get you to buy something. He might get compensated once when you sell everything, but until you’re ready to get back in, he’s got a problem.
Even if your advisor really believed that the market was going to take a nosedive, he still wouldn’t advise you to sell.
If an advisor moved all his clients to cash and the market went up, some clients might sue. When the market declines, he can blame the market for your loss. But if the market increases while you’re on the sideline, he has no one to blame but himself. An advisor takes a huge risk by advising you to get out.
Even if his intuition proved to be correct about the market decline, after having moved all his clients to cash, the result would be that he saved his clients, but he had hurt his own business significantly. Even though his clients would think he’s a genius, he would have killed his revenue stream and jeopardized his own well being.
He has everything to lose and nothing to gain by suggesting that you cash out. His revenue is his lifeblood; don’t expect him to sacrifice that to save you.